How to bet long term ‘over-under’ on the NFL?
There are many long term NFL bets around (Super Bowl winner, MVP, best coach…) but today we shall focus on probably the best one - betting over or under on the whole season for a certain team.
Just to explain, an NFL team plays 16 games per season before the playoffs. The division winners qualify to the playoffs together with two wild-card teams but all the other are bound to play just these 16 games. This number is way below other American sports so every game is basically treated as a playoff game. No team will ever go easy on another or consider resting players.
So, when betting ‘over-under’ on the number of wins for a whole season, one should consider several things.
How to Analyze NFL Over / Under Betting Lines?
Schedule Effect
NFL is an interesting league because the schedule changes. Teams do not play against every opposition in the league, but just some. The schedule key goes like this: a team plays six games against division rivals (home and away), four games against another division in their own conference (AFC or NFC) and four games against teams from the divison of the other conference. Additionally, a team plays two further games against teams of their own rank (based on the last year’s win ratio) making it 16 games in total.
So, it’s always important to know two things: does a team play in a strong or a weak division? Does a team play this year against stronger or weaker divisions? Another important thing is the bye week, which is basically a week when a team doesn’t play. Ideally, every team wants a Week 8 or a Week 9 bye in order to rest their players in the middle of the season. Having an early bye week can produce injury problems later on. A good or a bad schedule can mean a difference of even 2 or 3 wins, which is huge for a 16 game season.
Free-agency and draft matter a lot, and so do injuries
During the spring period, all the teams are defining their roster, which will be cut down to 57-58 names by the beginning of the season. The most important thing is to know who got better and who got worse. This is often not easy, as it is hard to evaluate the impact of a free-agent or rookie signing on teams success.
But still, one can observe if a team has invested in a certain area that has been bothering them and speculate if the number of wins will increase accordingly. But probably the most important things are injuries that very often occur during the summer training camps. If a star player (especially quarterback) gets injured at any time, a team might drop from expected 10 wins to just 5, or even more. So be vary of these events.
Evaluate the over- and underachievement
This is probably the most important thing and the one where having expertise can make all the difference. The number of wins for a team is often similar to their last season’s ratio. This, of course, makes sense, as often teams enter the new season with a very similar roster.
However, there are certain teams that may have over- or underachieved last season for various reasons and most of them we have already mentioned above (tough schedule, injuries, bad luck…). Now, their luck might easily change for either better or worse so the biggest value in these bets is always going to be to bet against a certain trend, taking into account just the change of fortune for a certain team.
Bookmakers for NFL Betting
It’s also essential to choose the betting site for NFL betting. It’s too early to find season over/under odds and bets in many bookmakers, but we can give insight from now for deciding on which betting site to prefer!
1xbet can be one of the best choices with their live stream widget and the lowest commission rates for odds. So you can bet on lines with the best odds while you are watching the games.
If you want to get advantage from early odds, you can bet for the first-week matches from now. It’s the right time to open an account from 1xBet! Their standard welcome bonus offers 100% bonus up to 100 euro. However, using bonus code PROTIPSTER during registration, you will be entitled to an enhanced welcome bonus: 100% up to 130 euro. You can read our 1xbet review from here!
1xbet is not the only one of the best bookmakers for NFL betting. We have a few more suggestions: Veerbet, maybe you didn’t hear about this bookmaker before. They are one of the rising bookmakers with a variety of choices for many sports and American football is one of these. They already have many long term bet options for the upcoming NFL 2019-2020 season! You can read our review for Veerbet by clicking this link.
Our last suggestion is for UK based customers: Boyle Sports:
They are one of the veterans for online betting, and their reputation and trustability is excellent! They have the over/under lines for every team in NFL already with many more long term bet options for the league. (Outright winner, Division Winner, Make/Miss The Play-Offs, Super Bowl Winning Conference). You can read our Boyle sports review and have deep knowledge about the bookie before you decide to register. Click here to read.
ProTipsters will post their tips during the whole season, and if you want to bet on NFL, don’t go anywhere before viewing the NFL predictions on ProTipster!
You can get more professional tips from our Premium team, and you can try ProTipster Premium 15 days for free!
