Italy vs Spain
Italy vs Spain is the first semi-final of Euro2020 and takes place at Wembley in London on Tuesday July 6. Italy overcame Belgium 2-1 to book their place in the last four while Spain needed penalties to get past Switzerland in their quarter-final. With a place in Sunday’s final at stake, which team has got enough left in the tank to beat their opponents? Read on for more analysis, match predictions and betting tips.
Form
Italy come into this game on a high after beating the best ranked side in the world in Belgium; albeit a slightly weakened side which was missing Eden Hazard due to injury and whose star player Kevin De Bruyne was playing through the pain barrier. Take nothing away from Italy though; they have looked irresistible in this tournament and once again they showed that they could be a very good bet to win the European Championship. Both Italian goals were high quality; midfielder Nicolo Barella wriggling away from three Belgian defenders before lashing home the first before Lorenzo Insigne curled home a beauty from 25 yards. Italy are unbeaten in nearly three years now, and counting the extra time victory as Austria they have won 13 games in a row. This will be Italy’s sixth time in the semi-finals of a European Championship - when Mancini took over in the wake of their failure to qualify for the 2018 World Cup this must have seemed a world away.
When Dennis Zakaria deflected home Jordi Alba’s long range strike in the eighth minute, Spanish fans must have felt that this could be their year. However, as has happened so much to Spain in recent times, their lacklustre finishing was punished by an equaliser from their opponents and it was their keeper who came to their rescue, helping them win a tense penalty shootout. Spain have drawn seven of their last 13 games and three of their last five. They’ve needed extra time in both of their knockout matches so far and there is a possibility that all of that will have had a detrimental effect on the fitness of their squad. However, this is Spain’s fifth appearance in the semi-final of a European Championship - and Spain have won all of their previous four.
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Injuries
Roma’s Leonardo Spinazzola has been an outstanding player for Italy in this tournament in the left-back slot but he is out of the remaining games having been stretchered off in the game against Belgium. His likely replacement is Emerson, who only appeared twice in the Premier League for Chelsea last season - and both of those were off the subs bench. His last club start was back in March in the 2-0 FA Cup win against Sheffield United - since then he has played just 12 minutes of football for his club. Captain Giorgio Chiellini returned in the Belgium game to partner Leonardo Bonucci in the centre of defence and it will be interesting to see if Mancini goes with those two old warhorses again for this game.
PSG winger Pablo Sarabia is a major doubt for Spain, having come off at half time in the game against Switzerland. The wideman felt a muscular twinge in the first few minutes but tried to soldier on through the pain barrier. That turned out to be impossible and Spain have sent him for scans to see if he will be fit enough to play in this game. Should Sarabia not make it then Spain manager Luis Enrique faces a quandary of who to bring in. Dani Olmo came on in the Switzerland game but with Alvaro Morata and Gerardo Moreno both struggling for goals and form it could be that more change is needed.
Match Predictions
The bookies have installed Italy as pre-match favourites but are offering a fairly hefty 2.5 against an Azzurri win. This could be a value bet on it’s own bearing in mind just how much Spain have been through in the last two rounds and it wouldn’t be surprising to see betting tips backing this. The bookies are expecting a tight game with under 2.5 goals at just 1.60 and BTTS: No at 1.80. The last time these two teams have met was just under four years ago in a World Cup qualifier in Madrid. In that game Spain were 3-0 winners; that score is currently at around 30.00 with the bookies. For those who think this will go into extra time, the draw at 3.10 could be a great punt.
